Wall Streets Tesla Bulls Are Underestimating Tesla

Wall Streets Tesla Bulls Are Underestimating Tesla


The last thing I wanted to bring up on
this Oppenheimer note before getting to your questions – which I think is fascinating
is Wall Street thinks – I don’t know, I may be reading this wrong, so correct me but
they look like they’re 2020 revenue estimates are $25.1 billion up from
$23.9 billion for 2020. They’re expecting $25.1 billion –
that would be like 3 or 5 percent growth from 2019 to 2020. I mean, that is,
this is the guy who has a $600 price target, thinks Tesla’s gonna do $25 billion in 2020 revenue, $29.4 billion in 2021 revenues.
The point is, I just think this is getting started. If the Street is coming
out with a $600 price target and they’re only expecting $25 billion in revenue next year, I mean my estimates that I put out on Hyper
Charts for a video – I actually just toned them down to make them even more
conservative. was like $32.5 billion and that’s more than their
2021 estimate – it’s only $29.4 billion. So my
point is, if you think Tesla is on the cusp of delivering over 500,000 cars this year – which i think is a given. I think it’s about 550,000 cars. We are looking at a massive re-rating
upward from Wall Street and estimates. What does that mean? I mean now this is
the fun part because for so long Wall Street didn’t get it, they didn’t get it.
We were getting sort of the short end of the stick with the
whole Wall Street situation and their short-term thinking but now that’s sort
of flipping and that short-term thinking the way the Wall Street system works is
now going in Tesla’s favor. They have all of these Excel models with all these
fancy numbers predicting how much money Tesla’s gonna make. They move extremely
slow. They’re lagging. They’re slow to react and update these and now we’re in
this, you know, potentially month or quarter long, quarters long process of
every single Wall Street analyst continually, incrementally upgrading
their entire financial model. Every single time they do that there’s a big
new price target jump. There’s a big whole new headline. Tesla stock hits all
new highs. That’s the pattern. That’s been unfolding for a past couple of weeks and
my point is, if you look at these estimates and you look at what Tesla was
about to do, that looks like it could continue significantly into the future.
Because I think to sum up my whole point and rant here if you’re just joining us,
I think Wall Street is hugely under estimating – even some of the biggest
Bulls on Wall Street are just totally under estimating what this company is
gonna do in 2020 and 2021 and I think that is what’s driving the stock here is
looking at continual ratings upward.

20 Comments

  • Datcray Investor

    January 16, 2020

    Youve met elon how many times now? Let's hear about what you think of him as a real person. 🙂

    Reply
  • Nate Ferguson

    January 16, 2020

    Does Wall St. not know about giga 3? Model Y?

    Reply
  • xSamuelx

    January 16, 2020

    I’m new to investing and all this stuff, what is a bull?

    Reply
  • The Knave

    January 16, 2020

    Be aware, though:
    No stock goes straight to the moon w/o a retracement or a correction.
    Long-term, TSLA is going nowhere but up.
    If you expect TSLA to go up, without any downturns along the way, you're in the wrong game. 🙂

    Reply
  • Edu

    January 16, 2020

    Please direct us to China auto sales data for all vehicles (EV & ICE) so that we can breakdown the opportunity in China. Can anyone help in this endeavor? In the US the data is available through government websites. You can also purchase from third parties. There must be somewhere that posts the data or sells it.

    Reply
  • Chris Ose

    January 16, 2020

    I feel Tesla stock analysts need to watch your videos to better understand the bull thesis on Tesla or just to understand Tesla in general.

    Reply
  • garry G Ballard

    January 16, 2020

    Ya, you're right on. Wall street can't do what you guy's do.

    Reply
  • Islam Mohamed

    January 16, 2020

    50% YoY production growth in 2019 WITH NO NEW VEHICLES OR FACTORIES.
    2020: Model 3 will ramp in Shanghai, Model Y will be added in Fremont Q1, ramping in Q2, and Model Y will likely begin production in Q3/4 Shanghai. Tesla Semi will begin production in Nevada around Q3. AND FREMONT WILL KEEP PUMPING OUT S, X, 3 AT 100K PER QUARTER. 400k is the base case with no other additional production.
    I agree with Gali, that there will be significant increase in production capacity as well as production in 2020, probably another 50% YoY growth, which would be around 525k. And Wall Street has not priced it in and completely ignored Energy revenues.

    Reply
  • Ziggi Mon

    January 16, 2020

    Yet another hyperidiotic video for Tesla cult members.

    Reply
  • castamir

    January 16, 2020

    Many of the analysts are extremely smart. They probably know and believe what people like us already know. They very likely personally believe that TSLA can be worth $5000 in the near future. All the things we know, they probably know. In fact, they probably know more than we do. However, they do not appear as bullish as we are because their job is to provide conservative estimates for the clients. If they become too bullish, their clients may question their other investments. For example, ARK invest is extremely bullish on TSLA. But they also sell millions of dollars of TSLA stocks regularly for the same reason. They need to capture gains in other areas other than TSLA.

    Reply
  • Simon Manning

    January 16, 2020

    If correct. And you very probably are. Then entities piling into short positions, even at this level, are going to support upward moves and attenuate pullbacks as they are forced to cover.
    I feel the anti Tesla machine gave the bulls a huge gift last year. It seems their generosity knows no bounds.

    Reply
  • Elektrotehnik

    January 17, 2020

    Question: How to choose a trustworthy stockbroker? Are online broker safe, how to choose one that is for sure not gonna take my money and escape? 😀
    I'm completely new to how brokers and online brokers really work, and how do you hold stock (what proves that you own stock, to not be worried of the above example etc.)
    What is a fair price for a broker to charge, is it per buy/sell order, or is it per how many shares bought/sold in that order? I'm also not really looking to pay extra for financial education (advice) from a broker (been listening to Gali for at least 2 years, I think I got the grasp of it from him).
    Any help will be appreciated beyond comprehension, none of my in-person friends knows anything related to stocks…

    I'm trying to invest in Tesla in general, especially when (if) the price drops in Q1, so trying to figure it out 🙂

    Reply
  • Karmic Experiment

    January 17, 2020

    Hyperchange CLIPS in da' House! Thanks again!

    Reply
  • W N

    January 17, 2020

    [email protected] Wall St. They never get it. Apple and Amazon should have taught them a costly lesson.
    Tesla can't make enough Model 3's in China. And adding Model Y on two continents, with US full production likely to be in Q2, and China in Q4. (It took 3 months to set up the assembly lines in China once the factory paint was dry).
    Battery and Drivetrain Investor Day will bring exciting news. And the stock will be mitigated by it given the usual Q1 dip in the car industry. Tesla needs to time their storage and solar revenue to Q1 collection to show better revenue and profit numbers.
    Tesla Semi is going to roll out post Q2 I predict. The news will keep the stock above 550 and possibly 600. Don't be surprised to see the stock at 700-800 by December.
    Come the return of warmer weather, the Plaid Model S will return to Nurburgring and expect pre-orders available by Q3 and Q4 delivery.

    Reply
  • integra

    January 17, 2020

    How do the "SHORTS" see this sooo Differently ????

    Reply
  • Marvin Green

    January 17, 2020

    Good point that I had not considered. A previous video where you estimated Q1 numbers to be the yearly poorest will probably establish the low end of this years trading range. I was guessing $350 but with your point and the short squeeze tending to come in december when funds close out positions for the year – the low for the year might be after Q1 report, maybe $400-$450.

    Reply
  • Tom Nelson

    January 17, 2020

    Throughout history people, companies, entertainers and so forth go to the top and stay there for a while. It never lasts forever. We have the unique opportunity to watch this play out in front of us. The next 5 to 10 years will be brutal and magical all at the same time. I am afraid for many that will be the victims of decisions not made by them.

    Reply
  • Wolf of Dubai Stocks Investing Channel

    January 17, 2020

    50% growth on average will make Tesla

    2026 a $6000 stock as per my video stock analysis

    Reply
  • Liguo Kong

    January 17, 2020

    absolutely. no idea why WS is so clueless.

    Reply
  • Market Scraper

    January 17, 2020

    You've just turned a bull into a bull my friend!

    Reply

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