Traders’ calendar for October 28 – 30: Traders weighing arguments for selling USD

Traders’ calendar for October 28 – 30: Traders weighing arguments for selling USD


The trade conflict between the US and China has been going on for almost a year. The battle of tariffs has roiled global financial markets and undermined economic development worldwide. Next week, traders will be able to assess the negative impact of the trade war on the US economy. What economic data will enable traders to make a judgment? Let’s watch a video calendar on InstaForex TV channel! Traders will get to know changes in the US trade balance. The focal point of Donald Trump’s protectionist policy is a boost of US exports with a view to protecting domestic manufactures. Nevertheless, US trade metrics have not changed a lot. A trade balance remains at about average values. Besides, a trade balance in September is expected to post a wider trade deficit once again. This information is bearish for the US dollar. However, the main driver for selling the greenback will be a different cause. On Tuesday, investors will shift focus towards a consumer confidence index from the Conference Board. This indicator is of crucial importance to investors because consumer spending accounts for nearly 70% of the US gross domestic product. Analysts share the pessimistic forecast predicting a decline to a three-month low. Such data is going to deal blow to the US dollar. However, this report is also not the main excuse to sell the US currency. On Wednesday, traders are anticipating one of the major barometers of the global economic conditions. The US is due to unveil preliminary GDP data for the third quarter. The pessimistic consensus warns of a slowdown in the US economic growth. Analysts project a modest 1.6% gain in the third quarter. Nevertheless, this report is one of the reasons for selling the US dollar. All the reports with negative forecasts mentioned earlier are weighty argument for the Federal Reserve to ease monetary policy. So, traders are increasing bets on a rate cut soon. The policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee is the key event which has been putting pressure on the US dollar for a few sessions and caps its rally even against the currencies without fundamental support. Analysts are cautious and expect the US central bank to maintain the ongoing monetary policy, but most investors foresee radical policy decisions of the rate-setting committee. Market participants think the regulator is likely to trim the official funds rate by 25 basis points to 1.75%. If the rate cut does not happen, the US dollar will rise sharply across the board. Apart from the above-said events, it would be a good idea for traders to take notice of other economic data. Monday is going to be a quiet day. The economic calendar contains reports of secondary importance. One of them is retail sales by the Confederation of British Industry. Early on Tuesday, traders will get to know Tokyo consumer inflation. Later, they will find out data on the US housing market that will provide clues to consumer sentiment in the US. On Wednesday, the economic calendar is loaded with economic data such as a CPI from Australia and reports on the labor market from Germany and the US. Besides, the Bank of Canada will hold a policy meeting that is unlikely to change the ongoing monetary policy.

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