Peter Webb | Bet Angel | Creating a profitable Betfair trading strategy

Peter Webb | Bet Angel | Creating a profitable Betfair trading strategy


if you’re interested in learning to
trade on Betfair then visit the bet angel’ Academy where you have detailed
structured Betfair trading courses or why not visit our website where you can
download a free trial of bet angel professional but also visit the forum
where you can get detailed images examples and downloadable files and
don’t forget to subscribe to our You Tube channel and click on the bell icon
if you want notification of new videos as they’re released so if you’re gonna
trade effectively you need to create a trading plan of some sort so what a
trading plan does is it gives you definable boundaries so it’s going to
dictate when you get into a market what your exit points are you need to come up
with a trading plan of some sort and it’s basically going to define what
you’re going to do in that particular market and the primary reason for doing
this is so that you have something that you can replicate if you can perform a
set of actions and you can replicate those actions then you have a chance of
influencing but if you just go into the market and you’re just sort of clicking
around at random doing stuff and using varying stakes and you just you know
you’ll never ever get any consistency because sometimes you win sometimes you
lose but because of commission and other
things you’ll probably end up losing in the long term so you need something to
find a ball that you can replicate but also a great thing about doing your
trading plan is it keeps your emotions in check it allows you to basically say
you know if this then that you will find however when you do a trading plan when
you first start doing it you’re going to be slow and you’re going to be behind
the market and you probably will be pretty useless if I’m honest to start
with but it’s critically important to have something that you can replicate
and work on and then over time you’ll get better and better at it it’s a bit
like riding a bike you know when you first sat on a bike you wobbled all over
the place and didn’t go very far but as time moves on then you get the
opportunity to progress and get better and better and I have an analogy to this
– bike riding before so you know I’ve often said that when I’m out riding my
mountain bike it’s I sort of I trade like that so you know
I’m always on the edge of what I can do but I know if I push it too hard I’m
going to crash and the same occurs when you’re actively trading you know there’s
a bit of a balance to be had there you know if you if you want to beat the guy
next to you you’re gonna have to push things a little bit harder go a little
bit faster be a little bit fitter and stuff like that so you’re having a
trading plan will actually allow you to keep your emotions in check it will
allow you to define what you’re going to do it will allow you to replicate what
you’re going to do and then it will allow you to get better at that as well
so when you first do it you’re going to be slow and you’re going to feel a bit
of a fool at times you’re gonna fall off your bike but when you get a little bit
more practiced then you can actually push a little bit harder be a little bit
quicker and find where your edges you know how fast you willing to go how
aggressive do you want to be how soon you want to get in the market stuff like
that so having a trading plan is probably one of the key most important
aspects when you first trading you need to be able to replicate something and
progress it so other key steps that you need to go through and you need to think
about when you’re doing your trading plan you know what strategy you’re gonna
use there you can it back you can delay they’re gonna do a pre offer you gonna
do it in play you know what specific thing are you gonna do now
because I’ve traded the markets over a very long period of time and I’ve traded
hundreds of thousands of them I can turn up to a market and just go oh yeah I
recognize this away we go but typically that’s not the best way to do it because
what you’re seeing there is the evidence of years and years and years worth of
practice so I can recognize opportunities as they present themselves
but a lot of people aren’t able to do that so you need to pick a strategy and
when you first start trading you need to basically say this is the strategy that
I’m going to use and the one I’m going to practice refine and then when you
master that you can move on and deploy more strategies that’s exactly how I
started I started with a really basic simple strategy and from that has
spawned hundreds of strategies off the back end of that and millions of
variations selects a duration there but you can understand where I’m coming from
here that comes that’s experienced and learned experience
allows you to define it but everybody starts from the same point one simple
strategy practice it very well branch it evolve it and adopt other
strategies and then learn when you need to deploy those and that’s the important
thing as well deployment which market you’re gonna do it in just because you
have a strategy doesn’t mean that it’s going to be deployed across every single
market so you need to do is define markets that you will and won’t use this
strategy because if you apply a generic strategy in a generic market you’re
going to get generic results you will probably lose money so define one
strategy and then learn how that works within individual markets you may find
that there are certain markets that it works particularly well in and therefore
you should sort of heads down that route and you know it’s good we’re cutting
losses as well if you use that strategy in a market and you keep losing money in
that particular market then just bin those markets don’t bend the strategy what entry point you know you need a
defined criteria for entry so you need to come up and saying well if this
happens or this is the situation then this is the point which I get involved
in the market and of course when you’re in the market you need to define what
are you looking for what would define a successful trade and where is the limit
of that successful trade on the upside because if you define the upside you’ll
automatically define the downside or you could do it the other way around you
know how much money am I losing with this strategy what do I need to do to
make it profitable whichever way you look at it these two are interchangeable
so that needs to be part of whatever trading plan you have how am I going to
define success am I looking for five ticks 5% you know 100-pound you know
there has to be some definition of where and why you’re doing this strategy
because you need therefore to understand what you need to do to make your trading
long-term expectancy positive so you need to know before you’ve even done the
trade roughly what your up and down side is going to be and where you’re going to
aim that because that both of those will define your strike rate as well we’ll
talk about this in a minute and then necessarily you know when you’re going
to get out when do you realize that everything’s gone horribly wrong and
you’re gonna have to live on water and bread for a week it’s important to
understand each of these characteristics this will all be part
of your trading account so let’s look at a simple strategy for this one we’re
going to be looking simply because I did a video on it recently at finding a
steamer something that’s being heavily backed within a particular market and
you know this is just one of a number of strategies so you’re not limited to
specifically trying to you know deploy the stretch across every single market
you may pick this strategy only for certain markets and a different strategy
for other markets but what I’m saying here is develop a strategy practice that
strategy and see where it leads you so how would you find a steamer well you
can see from the graphic that’s behind me obviously one of the things that
happened this year and I have highlighted this repeatedly endlessly
over a number of years is when you get this jockey trainer gamble thing that
can occur at a large meeting if somebody wins you’re rapidly a jockey like
Frankie Tottori wins a race then people may have a tendency to start backing the
next one and they may follow that up if he wins again and stuff like that so you
know there are a number of ways of identifying where potential interest is
within a market but when you actively look at a steamer it doesn’t have to
occur this way they can occur organically naturally things can happen
that encourage people to bet on a horse so typically what you’re looking for
even if you didn’t know who Frankie to Tory was then they did run the previous
three races you’d be looking for consistent backing so there’s a certain
type of behavior in the market when you’re looking at horse racing where you
can see persistent backing the price on the favorite is basically going to start
up here and then gradually work its way in and it may be a little bit erratic
but you just see these repeat back orders gradually pulling the price down
so you’re looking for consistent backing within the market now you know you
obviously want to consistent backing but also if it reaches a certain point
within the market in stalls then you may find that it actually ends up reversing
so typically what you’re looking for within a market is some for a consistent
steamer to be able to break support it reaches a critical point in the market
but just passes straight through that indicates to you that nobody’s willing
to lay out and that the money will continue to go so can
distant backing and breaking support her two key things that you should be
looking for with the steamer but also you’re looking for supporting evidence
as well you know what’s going to stop the favorite from heading much lower it
is there something happening somewhere else within the market or maybe even
pictures from the course maybe the horse is just not looking particularly
comfortable or the commentators are saying or you know is looking a bit
frisky on the way to the star always not leaving the parade ring stuff like that
then you probably sort of you know be a little bit more cautious but also have a
look at what’s going on elsewhere within the market you often see me doing this
and the next slide I’ve got has an image from a video that I recently did and it
was quite simple really because you know we can see that one of them is being
backed one of them is being laid and we can’t make our mind up on this
particular occasion about the favorite and then what actually happened if you
watch this video is you’ll see a large back border come in it breaks support
and then the price starts to come down so it’s quite a good example but the
funny thing about this is you know we’re looking for a steamer in the market if I
look at this particular trade on the favorite I wouldn’t say that this was a
typical sort of steamer driven market because really what you need for the two
runners that aren’t the favourites to be gradually drifting over time if they’re
gradually drifting and there’s no predominant backing on all of them
that’s going to pull the price on the favorite in so what I actually did on
this particular video was I couldn’t make up my mind about which way the
photo was going to go I was waiting for the breakouts to occur so I went for the
next best option which was the second favourite then I was looking to catch
the drift on the second favor so not to confuse things but basically what we’re
trying to do here it was were looking for a general trend within the market is
there momentum that is occurring is the favorite being backed in but is that
being supported by others that are beginning to drift down so if you see
that you’re going to score that highly as a you know you’re looking for
potential backing activity it’s broken support and he got two runners that are
drifting you know that looks like a nice trade if you can’t see that then you’ll
probably lower your risk you’ll probably feel less comfortable with what you’re
seeing and therefore you probably score at low you may even skip it so you know
this is when we’re talking about entry and practice and trading plans you’re
looking for something very specific when you first start
now you’ll be looking for the perfect trade which probably won’t occur and
over time you’ll begin to adjust that by saying well this is generally pretty
good and I’m willing to you know have a go at this particular trade it’s very
difficult to get a trade that’s a hundred percent you know absolutely
definitely know what’s going to happen you’re going to have to get used to that
feeling because that is essentially the essence of trading you’re taking risk in
return for a similar reward but you know some of that risk is going to be
undefined and you have to be the judge of whether you’re doing that so yeah
there are very different grades on this particular example that’s behind me we
would sort of say that you know the favourites you know we couldn’t make a
foam judgment on this we’d have to wait for confirming information but a lot of
other markets are you know much much clearer but in fact what I should do is
is talk you through some examples of the sort of thing that you’re looking for
that that take account of some of the stuff that we’ve discussed already so
when you’re looking at backing a steamer you know you’ll expect the price to sort
of be gradually moving down in some form or another but there are sort of many
patterns in the way that it moves now obviously if more people are backing
than laying then the price has to come down so essentially what you’re looking
for was backing activity in the market in some way or another now you can look
on the ladder that would give you an indication as to if you’re seeing
backing activity but typically you know something that looks like this is not
particularly common and you know very often you sort of see boom and the price
goes out and then boom and then the price goes so you’ll often see activity
this sort of goes like that or you could see a period of stability and then the
price comes in and then it sort of retrench is and then carries on but
essentially you’re just looking for this you know fairly consistent downward
movement if you’re watching the ladder frequently enough you’ll be able to get
a feel for it you’ll see activity building in the market and pushing the
price down so yeah you know there are several patterns that develop that that
give you a clue as to how this is happening but you know if you see the
markets that are doing this then obviously you know there’s a slight bias
but not significant one and as I’ve said in
videos before you have to grade each opportunity as you see but if we start
to put together a few of the things that we’ve talked about already in this video
then hopefully you’ll be looking at something that is generally trending
down now what can happen now and again is it trends down for a period and then
it sort of flatlines so what tends to happen when the market stays at the same
price for a period of time is you tend to sort of get a buildup of volume at
that particular point within the market so you know I’m gonna do a really rough
and ready the volume indicator here it’s not a very good one if I’m honest but
hopefully you know that should have done it a certain color or something but
basically you know the the amount of money that’s getting matched sort of
tends to congregate at one particular point or another so at this particular
point you’re looking for a breakout at this particular moment in time so we’re
looking for a steamer working for consistent backing but all of a sudden
you know the market is sort of stuck in a certain point and volumes accumulating
in one direction another so at this particular point you know if if the
markets stuck for a while then you may find that it breaks down so if you get a
large order that breaks the price further then you can sort of think well
okay this probably is heading in that direction but you know you could also
see the price and tend to go up a bit typically it will sort of bounce one way
or the other so if you see the price come down and then it sort of you know
it meanders above the line from here each time that you’re seeing it bounce
oops let’s do this each time that you see it bounce these individual points is
getting less and less likely that the the market is going to continue to occur
it’s going to continue in the trend and which was going so when you see it
bouncing like this you know you each time that it bounces you’re sort of
going or you know not sure what’s going it’s probably going to go up in fact I
definitely and then you know you’re performing a judgment like that you’re
basically saying it’s looking more and more likely that something like that is
going to happen so really what you’re looking for is for the price to sort of
head below the key point and then go up and
touch and then maybe that will continue onwards from there so around that
particular level you’ll begin to understand that it’s hitting a point of
support or resistance at that particular moment in time and you can take your cue
as to where you go from there but also think about it if you see a market that
exhibits this type of activity you know there’s no reason why you couldn’t do a
trade in the other direction you could basically safer it wait for the price to
come down and the price will head off in the other direction but you’re talking
about doing a swing trade looking for a reversal or a bounce depending upon how
much time you’ve got left within the market but when you get to this scenario
where the market begins to stall then you’re either going to have to sort of
say well you know maybe I need to exit my trade or you may need to look for
confirmation as to whether the price is going to continue to push on below this
particular level so you need to see continued backing or you need to see the
market bouncing around below where most of the money is within the market
because if there’s a big chunk of money here as we head towards post time that
money will increase but it will you know sort of tends to develop a direction of
some sort or another you can get a clue when the market begins to sort of
stagnate like that but ideally you want a strongly trending market you’re on a
market where there’s significant amount of money coming for a runner and you’re
sort of seeing repeated backing within the market those are the strongest
trending markets and basically as time goes on you can begin to identify all of
the key characteristics but maybe stick with one when you first do it that is
fairly clear and obvious and start looking for that rather than confuse
yourself with all of the other patterns that can develop so yeah try and keep an
eye out for a persistent pattern in one direction and if the market that whoops
if the market stalls at one particular point you’re really looking for the
price to sort of maybe bounce up towards that level but not beyond it but you
could probably sort of say that if that point is well above where you are at the
moment that probably brings you a little bit of safety but it’s below where you
are at the moment then that may actually hold that particular
attract now you would have seen me do this on videos as well when you’re
actually in a trade it makes perfect sense to define what you’re going to do
this is where I’m going to put you you decide that you’re going to get in at a
certain point within the market because all of the characteristics that you
wanted are present but at the moment that you get in to your trade you’re
beginning to define a point at which you will place your closing traits you see
me do this all over the time I’m sort of saying well I think we’re in here I
think it’s going to go up there and therefore this is where I’m going to put
my closing trades but I’ll also look behind my current position and say well
this is where things you know I’ll define this traders having gone wrong
now it doesn’t make sense typically to just have a a rigid boundary because if
something happens somewhere else in the market you may want to be a little bit
flexible but that’s why you see me break up trades as well because if I’m
confident that the trades going well I’ll put more trades in and if I think
it’s going to go further than I expect then I’ll just slow down my exit and
this is why you see me trade the way that I do because what I’m trying to do
is to get in the market roughly the right point and out at roughly the right
point but I’m leveraging and maximizing the opportunity that I have within that
market so if I think it’s gone really disastrously wrong and I just dump
everything straightaway but generally that’s not the case because I’m very
good at getting the right entry points within the market but once you’re in the
market you have to define what that range will be because that will define
your expectancy in the longer term as well so yeah it’s important that you
actually have an idea of what you’re going to do and when and that will help
you execute better trades as well so as we come to the end of this presentation
the thing that I want to reinforce with you finally is about your trading
expectancy and the reason that we’re setting up a trading plan and that we’re
defining our entry and exit in the up and down site and all of those things
it’s so that we have some metrics to measure our trading by but also so that
we can actually begin to influence that so on the slides that you can see behind
me here we’ve sort of got a number of win rates down here this is your strike
rate when you do these types of trades and it’s not really your percentage
strike rate that defines your overall profitability so you could have a
98% strike rate but if you lose a lot of money when that loss comes in then
you’re still not going to make money and in the same measure if you have a very
low strike rate then you could still actually win as long as you win more
than you lose so very often trading is about not getting yourself into trouble
in the first place picking key points within the market
areas where there are less likely to be downside and then letting the trade run
to its full extent when you get the upside you don’t want to cut your losses
too soon because you know the market that would reduce your strike rate by
the same ways you don’t let them run out of control and it’s the same in the
other direction if you’ve got a good to trade underway you want to maximize it
as much as possible but not to the point where it reverses and comes back in the
other direction so you need to measure your strike rate how much you win when
you have a winning trade and how much you lose when you have a losing trade
it’s important to have all of those three things because they will form your
overall expectancy and what you can see on the slide is you know we’ve got one
race or one strategy rather that has a 30% win rate we lose we win ten pounds
every time that we do this trade successfully and we lose five pound when
we do it unsuccessfully but at a 30% strike rate we actually make a small
loss however with a bit of practice we bump our strike rate up to 40% and we
actually lose more than we win but because we’re getting half decent trades
through the market were actually slightly more positive and your aim as a
trader that your mission is a trader should you choose to accept it is to try
and get your strike rate up as high as possible and that balance between your
wins and your losses in the best ratio possible as well so big wins and small
losses it’s not always going to happen like that but what you’ll find is if you
have a trading plan it will basically present a win rate to you a strike rate
and will also present how much you’re winning when you win and how much you
lose when you lose and then you can start to understand where you’re going
wrong are you lightening the losses go too big or you’re not making a profits
big enough or is your strike rate just appalling or perhaps you have your
strike rate is high but you’re taking the losses you know that taking to
bigger losses is the word I’m looking for
but if you have a defined trading plan you can plug these figures together and
that will tell you a where you’re going wrong but also you know what you need to
achieve as well if you know what that win and loss ratio is that will define a
strike rate and if you have a win rate and a strike rate that will tell you
what your losses could be so using all of that information together will allow
you to become a profitable trader you

5 Comments

  • Graham Beyer

    October 27, 2019

    What is the difference between a strategy and a trading plan?

    Reply
  • Daniel Romaniuc

    October 27, 2019

    Hi I'm new to trading I've been trading randomly for some time and keeping track of the results it seems that no matter what I do I lose one tick per trade on average. Is that because of the spread?

    Reply
  • Charles Bronson

    October 28, 2019

    I appreciate you sharing your experience and wisdom in trading..your content is priceless. Thank you Peter

    Reply
  • Владимир Квятковский

    October 28, 2019

    Hi Peter
    Can you advise what to watch or where to see if I want to create some automations for AUS races (I can't manually trade it because of time)
    Thank you 😊

    Reply
  • John T

    October 28, 2019

    I learned more from your sketches here than many previous vids which have comfused me. Thank you.

    Reply

Leave a Reply