Welcome to the Investors Trading Academy economic
calendar of the week. Each week our news analysts review the upcoming economic events that you
should be monitoring. Stock markets around the globe crashed last week after disappointing
Chinese and Eurozone data spooked the markets sending the VIX Fear Index to a record high.
Speeches by Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi showed the central banks moving in opposite
directions as Eurozone GDP fell lower again while US inflation was a bit weak. The bevy
of Fed speakers all seemed to point to a December rate increase. This week, traders will closely
monitor US data but are hoping for some hint from the Fed members on size of the rate increase
as the question moved to not if or when but how many increases will the Fed have in 2016.
Mario Draghi continues to drop increasing hints about an increase in Eurozone QE, which
has driven down the euro but done little for stock markets.
Economic news this week is dominated by inflation numbers from the Eurozone, UK, US and Canada,
which will drive FX movements. Also of note will be German ZEW and UK retail sales.
The week kicks off in the US on Monday with the Empire State manufacturing survey.
UK consumer price figures due out on Tuesday should also be monitored. The forecast from
Credit Suisse was for CPI to stay put at a year-on-year rate of -0.1%. Low consumer prices
were perhaps the chief factor weighing on the Bank of England’s recent policy deliberations
and the reason behind the ‘dovish’ message it delivered after the last meeting of the
monetary policy committee. Later in the day the focus in the US will
be on monthly inflation data as well as industrial production. The Federal Reserve is closely
watching all the economic indicators to determine if rates should be lifted in December.
On Wednesday in China, the October figures on house prices are released. In the year
to September house prices were down 0.9 per cent. In the US, the Federal Reserve releases
minutes from the last policymaking meeting held on October 28. Analysts will be going
through the report with a fine-toothed comb for assurance that rates are set to rise at
the December meeting. Later in the day the October data on housing
starts is released together with the usual weekly report on mortgage transactions — purchases
and refinancing. Economists are tipping a 3.4 per cent retracement in housing starts
after the hefty 6.5 per cent increase in September. The week slows down with little major data
on Thursday and a quiet day on Friday. On Thursday the leading index is released together
with the influential Philadelphia Federal Reserve survey and the usual weekly data on
claims for unemployment insurance. Economists tip an encouraging 0.4 per cent lift in the
leading index while the Philly Fed index is expected to improve from -4.5 points to 0.5