Betfair trading – My favourite type of Betfair trade

Betfair trading – My favourite type of Betfair trade


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released thank you for watching the video this was a trade that I did
recently and I thought it would make for a really interesting video because it
shows you how I think and what my best type of trade is so I’ve just clicked on
the graph there you can see that the price on this favorite has come
rocketing in for over long period of time and typically what happens is
people tend to follow trends and as they say the trend is your friend until the
end and when you look at sports markets very different from financial markets
because if you see a trend like this you can see that there’s been a lot of
activity but you can also see that it’s sort of temporarily stopped but
typically a lot of people will continue to follow the trend whereas my instinct
is to always go against the trend especially in sports markets sports
markets have this habit of sort of meandering really it’s and the reason
for that is it’s impossible you can see I’ve just entered the trade there at
202-204 it’s impossible for the price to come in forever so you know it would be
amazing and I’ve just put the closing trades in in anticipation that the price
will go up there somewhere it’s impossible for the market to continue on
inwards so you know if you if we saw this backed into 101 this is this
favorite in this race it would be absolutely remarkable if if that
occurred rather bizarrely things like that have occurred but for reasons that
are beyond the scope of explaining in this video but typically it would be
utterly remarkable so there becomes a point at which people will refuse to
back it so you can see in this market the point at which people are refusing
to back it anymore is when it reaches evens when it’s when it reaches that
point in the market around twos so our judgment here is that yet the price has
been backed in it’s been backed in and in and in
and that at some point people are just gonna get fed up of that and they will
stop backing it and you can see that that is more or less what’s occurring at
this particular moment in time we’ve seen the price come down to 198 at the
lowest there’s lots of money matched at or around evens at two and therefore
we’re just sort of saying well you know the money’s gonna run out people will
stop backing it and we can probably profit from going against that and that
is my favorite type of trade so if the price was drifting remarkably then
typically I would tend to go in the other direction on that as well so I
tend not to be a trend follower there’s a really interesting bit of information
I’ll give you around this at some point which will show you that accidentally
people have misinterpreted some of the terminology and the way that this sort
of trade is achieved what you would call it but essentially what i’m doing here
is the prices come in i’m going against it if the price is going out i would
start to go for it I’d begin to look at it but once the trend is underway
probably a big chunk of the move has happened already so my favorite trade is
actually going against it because I know that loads of newbie traders punters
mothers sons dogs and everybody will be on it on the basis that they’re going to
miss out and in fact it’s it it’s a rotten psychological flaw but in fact
when you see a trend you tend to extrapolate it everybody does it it’s a
common human issue a trait that people have and it’s something that tends to
lead people into the wrong situations whereas I tend to sit on the other side
of the market I’m more interested in making a call when a trend is about to
finish if the trend is underway then my
instinct is more to think along the lines of well you know what it was a
good trend but I’ve missed it not blowing that whereas if we’re looking at
a trend then I’m sort of thinking well when when are people going to stop
backing this because I know that it’s not going to go into 101 I know it’s not
going to drift to a thousand and therefore it’s pretty obvious to me that
at some point that activity will just sort of exhaust itself
people will stop backing stop playing and the market will sort of regress to
mean at some point and that typically is my favorite type of trade because my
strike rates on that is very high and it goes against the prevailing psychology
which I also like and people have this tendency to endlessly extrapolate trends
when in fact in what you’re seeing in the market is not an extension of that
trend and therefore you know you feel that you should be going against that
and it’s very difficult to go against that but typically that is what produces
absolutely the the best quality trades for me tends to be very high strike rate
and I tend to be able to spot them quite easily and the big advantage that I have
is everybody’s looking at the trend that’s prevailing in the market and
following it almost blindly and therefore if I take a position that goes
against that then when the position does start to turn there’s a little bit of a
panic the price rushes up and then hey presto I get the ability to I get a
decent trade out of it as you can see on the video now we’ve exited at or around
the point at which we feel it’s probably gone far enough in the other direction
and you can see that in fact we were absolutely spot on here as well and that
their price has stalled at this particular moment in time
and you’ll often find this the market doesn’t find the exact point at which it
should be at instantaneously it tends to wobble around that particular point and
by going against the trend you can pick off some pretty decent trades which is
exactly what we’ve done here if you are interested in learning more about best
angel’ it’s tools and the opportunities they present then why not visit Betty
angel comm today and download a free trial

16 Comments

  • Hernando Torres

    December 4, 2015

    Nice job

    Reply
  • Barry Walters

    December 9, 2015

    Nice Video Peter. I still find It quite hard to find the market bottom, just when you think It has happened a big chunk of false money comes In to push the price even lower. It happens every day and Is SO very frustrating to deal with,, any tips on this ??

    Reply
  • ReturnOfTheBlack

    December 12, 2015

    Great video

    Reply
  • Pedro Strom

    March 12, 2016

    tats pre live right ?

    Reply
  • saharaharris

    May 21, 2016

    Hi Peter. Great video, as always. Just out of interest – had the market gone through 2.0 where would you have stopped out?

    After watching this video I spotted an opportunity to execute the same trade a few days later, I ended up missing the opportunity as whilst I was about to enter the market I became frozen in fear at the thought of the market crashing through the 2.0 and me not being able to stop out in time.

    Was it just a case that if the market looked like it was going to push through the 2.0, you would have stopped out as soon as possible?

    Thanks,

    Alan

    Reply
  • positive economic reform ideas.

    May 30, 2016

    Thanks for the heads up info, need to watch all your vids several times. I have downloaded the software, and now just have to learn it. What do you think of backing a long priced steamer down in price and then laying at best price can get just before the off? How would you automate that strategy in your software? for an arbitrage win

    Reply
  • colin glen

    June 6, 2016

    I haven't got a clue what you're talking about.does the charts on the screen even relate to what you're saying? if so then I need to be taught the basics of this …have you a more basic video for dummies that will enable me to understand the above video . thanks.

    Reply
  • Emanuil Penev

    July 13, 2016

    There's a saying in the financial markets that it's not good to try to pick a bottom or a top of a trend. Isn't that valid for horse racing too? I noticed many times the price's coming in even more than what I've expected to

    Reply
  • lje

    November 22, 2016

    Thank you Peter. At the moment I am trading without using graphs as I am on my laptop, therefore I just have 4 ladders covering my screen. Am I at a disadvantage not reading the graphs? I'm fairly new and have never used them so i wouldn't know. Also I cant find any video from yourself showing how you read the graphs?

    Reply
  • BoracicLint

    June 28, 2017

    Very interesting to see how confident you are to back and lay at the very bottom of the market knowing that the trade isn't going to get away from you as it can do in smaller everyday markets. Its something that will help me in the future at the big meetings. Nice video explaining how this works.

    Reply
  • rarecockneyguvnor

    November 19, 2017

    what happens if you can't lay your lay price . You just end up with just a single back bet ?

    Reply
  • wolfiebg

    March 12, 2018

    Dear Sir, please find a minute to answer me… First you say "the trend is your friend until the end" and the first thing you do after that is to lay the horse (after the chart was falling so far), saying that it will not keep falling forever. I find this exactly the opposite of what you said… I hope you understand my confusing and will explain better..? Thank you!

    Reply
  • Paul Fielden

    June 24, 2018

    Hi Peter great content thanks for all the guidance Whats the reason you don chase the price all the way ug IE put a trade in every box!

    Reply
  • utubecomment21

    July 21, 2018

    "My interest is to go against the trend especially in sports market" …

    You forgot to add … except in this case – https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hWnNBCZ6_IM

    Reply
  • Matt Jones

    February 7, 2019

    This may well be an incredibly stupid question, however it’s been confusing me recently (due to what’s happened with my trades on the ladder recently).

    You originally laid £500. You then backed with another £500 further up. However then, with both of these matched, you continued to just back. My question really is, doesn’t laying once and then backing repeatedly put the trade out of kilter?

    Reply
  • Ben Fleck

    September 11, 2019

    This is if the trend is near the end, as peter said if he has missed the trend. If you join the trend at the beginning ride the wave but be wary of when it will regress.

    Reply

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