Bank of Canada releases latest interest rate decision

Bank of Canada releases latest interest rate decision


TIME AND HAVE INCREASED THEM IN OUR LATEST PROJECTION, THESE ARE MOSTLY JUDGMENT BASED AND A SITUATION COULD WORSEN. ACCORDINGLY, WE PRESENT A DEEPER ANALYSIS OF THIS DOWNSIDE RISK IN TODAY’S MPR IN BOX THREE. LET ME NOTE FOR THE BIGGEST EFFECT FOR CANADA OF A NEGATIVE GROWTH SCENARIO WOULD BE A STEEPER DROP IN COMMODITY PRICES AND AS IN 2015, A SIGNIFICANT DEPRECIATION OF THE CANADIAN DOLLAR. IN CONTRAST TO THESE ADVERSE GOAL DEVELOPMENTS, THE CANADIAN ECONOMY IS DEMONSTRATING RESILIENCE OVERALL. [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] THE ECONOMY CONTINUES TO CREATE NEW JOBS AT A SOLID PACE. THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE IS NEAR AN ALL-TIME LOW. MANY COMPANIES ARE REPORTING A HUGE SHORTAGE OF SKILLED WORKERS AND WAGE GROWTH IS PICKING UP NOTICEABLY IN THE PAST SIX MONTHS OR SO. THE HOUSING SECTOR IS CLEARLY ON THE REBOUND, HAVING DIGESTED THE VARIOUS HOUSING POLICY CHANGES PUT IN PLACE DURING 2016 TO 2018. AND IT’S STILL BEING FUELLED BY RELATIVELY HIGH RATES OF IMMIGRATION. FINALLY, CONSUMPTION SPENDING HAS HELD UP RELATIVELY WELL ON AVERAGE. SUPPORTED BY THE SOLID LABOUR MARKET AND LOW INTEREST RATES. EVEN AS THE SAVINGS RATE HAS BEEN EDGING HIGHER.>>WE STRUGGLE AS A FULL ADJUSTMENT TO THE DECLINE IN OIL PRICES BACK IN 2015 IS NOT YET COMPLETE. AND TRANSPORTATION CONSTRAINTS ARE MAKING THE SITUATION WORSE. YOU MAY RECALL THAT BACK IN 2015, WE SAID THAT THE FULL ADJUSTMENT WOULD TAKE UP TO FIVE YEARS. BUT EVEN WITH LOWER INTEREST RATES AND A LOWER DOLLAR, AS WELL AS FISCAL STIMULUS, THE ADJUSTMENT TO SUCH A LARGE SHOCK TAKES A LONG TIME. IT’S PAINFUL FOR INDIVIDUALS AS IT INVOLVES EXTENDED LAYOFFS AND POSSIBLY INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION, WHICH IS COSTLY FOR ALL CONCERNED. ALL OF THIS ADDS UP TO A COMPLEX OUTLOOK FOR CANADA WITH CONSIDERABLE VARIATION ACROSS REGIONS AND SECTORS. THE STRONG LABOUR MARKET POINTS TO SOURCES OF GROWTH SUCH AS INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY AND OTHER PROFESSIONAL SERVICES, TOURISM, EDUCATION, HEALTH CARE, FINANCIAL SERVICES. SOME OF THIS GROWTH IS BEING OVERSET BY NEGATIVE EFFECTS COMING THROUGH BUSINESS INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS, PARTICULARLY IN MANUFACTURING AND IN THE RESOURCE SECTOR. ON THE WHOLE, HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THAT OUR ECONOMY IS STILL OPERATING CLOSE TO CAPACITY BUT PROBABLY WITH A MODEST AMOUNT OF AN EXCESS SUPPLY. THE GOVERNING COUNCIL AGREED THAT ALL THINGS CONSIDERED, THIS EXCESS SUPPLY IS PROBABLY NOT PERVASIVE. FURTHERMORE, OUR SITUATION DIFFERS FROM THE OTHER COUNTRIES IN AT THAT INFLATION IS AT OUR 2% TARGET TODAY. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODEST EXCESS SUPPLY. HOWEVER, WE ACKNOWLEDGE THE DOWN SIDE RISKS AS SET OUT IN OUR ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IN BOX 3. COUNCIL ALSO DEVOTED SOME TIME TO A DISCUSSION OF THE EVOLUTION OF FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES IN CANADA. IT’S BEEN ENCOURAGED BY DEVELOPMENTS AND THE ENHANCEMENT OF THE MORTGAGE STRESS TEST AS THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT DECLINE IN NEW MORTGAGES ABOVE 450% OF DISPOSABLE INCOME. FURTHER, WE HAVE NOT SEEN A DROP IN MAJOR HOUSING MARKETS FOR SOME TIME NOW. THE RECENT STRENGTH IN MANY HOUSING MARKETS ACROSS THE COUNTRY IS A REMINDER THAT WE WILL BE CARRYING HIGH LEVELS OF DEBT FOR A LONG TIME DESPITE A CONSTRUCTIVE EVOLUTION OF OUR EMPLOYEES. SO IT’S WITH THIS CONTEXT IN MIND THAT THE GOVERNING COUNCIL CONSIDERED WHETHER THE DOWN SIDE RISKS TO THE CANADIAN ECONOMY WERE SUFFICIENT AT THIS TIME TO WARD A MORE ACCOMODATIVE MONETARY POLICY AS A FORM OF INSURANCE AGAINST THOSE RISKS. WE CONCLUDED THAT THEY WERE NOT. IN THE SETTING, WE DISCUSSED WHETHER SUCH INSURANCE MAY COME AT A COST IN THE FORM OF HIGHER FINANCIAL VULNERABILITIES AND CONSEQUENCES FOR THE ECONOMY AND INFLATION IN THE FUTURE. WE AGREED THAT THE NEW MORTGAGE RULES IN PLACE LIMIT THIS COST, BUT THE SITUATION WILL REQUIRE CONTINUOUS MONITORING. MOREOVER, THE FACT THAT INFLATION HAS BEEN ON TARGET AND IS PROJECTED TO REMAIN NEAR TARGET SO WE CAN WEIGH THE UP SIDE AND THE DOWN SIDE RISKS TO INFLATION MORE SYMMETRICALLY. [ VOICE OF TRANSLATOR ] GOVERNING COUNCIL BE MINDFUL THAT THE RESILIENCE OF CANADA’S ECONOMY WILL BE INCREASINGLY TESTED AT TRADE CONFLICTS AND UNCERTAINTY PERSIST. IN CONSIDERING THE APPROPRIATE PATH FOR MONETARY POLICY, WE WILL BE MONITORING THE EXTENT TO WHICH THE GLOBAL SLOWDOWN SPREADS BEYOND MANUFACTURING AND INVESTMENT. WE WILL BE HAPPY TO TAKE YOUR QUESTIONS. ONE QUESTION, ONE PHOTO OP. REUTERS.>>Question: WITH GROWTH BUSIER AND NEXT YEAR, [ Inaudible ].>>WELL, I CAN’T SUMMARIZE IT ANY BETTER THAN I JUST DID. WE ESTIMATE GIVEN THE GROWTH SLOWDOWN THAT WE HAVE RIGHT AT THIS MOMENT IN THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR, WE’RE OPENING UP A MODEST GAP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN ZERO AND 1%. THERE WILL BE A RANGE 5 IS THE POINT ESTIMATE. BUT THAT IS NOT SOMETHING TO BE IGNORED ESPECIALLY OF MORE DOWN SIDE RISKS APPEAR. BUT IN THIS CONTEXT, WITH OUR FORECAST STILL KEEPING INFLATION VERY CLOSE TO 2%, LIKE, A TENTH OR TWO OUT OF LINE HERE AND THERE, IT’S VERY MINOR. THAT PUTS US IN A POSITION TO WEIGH THE RISKS IN THEIR TOTALITY AND AS I SAID IN MY OPENING REMARKS, LET’S NOT TAKE OUT AN INSURANCE CUT AND THE SETTING IF WE ARE THERE, THERE WILL BE TALKS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT.>>Question: HOW HAVE THE OUTCOME OF THE ELECTION MINORITY?>>THAT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE TO OUR ANALYSIS AT ALL. OF COURSE, WE ACT COMPLETELY INDEPENDENTLY WITH OUR MANDATE AND IT’S ALL ABOUT WHAT’S THE INFLATION FORECAST. THAT’S WHY I MENTIONED IF THE FISCAL LINE IN OUR FORECAST CHANGES BECAUSE OF THE POST ELECTION PERIOD, THEN THAT WILL BE ONE THING THAT WOULD NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT THE NEXT TIME WE DO A FORECAST.>>Question: GREG QUINN, MARKET NEWS. GOOD MORNING. YOU’RE PERHAPS A BIT OF A LONER IN THE G-7 WITH THE HIGH RATE THAN THOSE OTHER NATION AND IS CANADA’S ECONOMY LONG UP, A VERY INDEPENDENT ECONOMY. WHAT IS IT THAT’S ABLE TO CARRY US THROUGH A GLOBAL TRADE WAR?>>WELL, WE’VE MADE IT CLEAR, I THINK, BOTH IN THE STATEMENT AND THE MONETARY POLICY REPORT THAT WE ARE NOT AN ISLAND. YOU KNOW, WE ARE NOT IMMUNE TO THESE GLOBAL DEVELOPMENTS. WE THINK WE’RE IN A GOOD POSITION TO COPE WITH WHATEVER COMES OUR WAY. GIVEN THAT INFLATION IS ON TARGET AND UNEMPLOYMENT IS NEAR AN ALL-TIME LOW. YOU KNOW, PEOPLE CAN STILL GET SICK BUT THEY RECOVER MORE QUICKLY WHEN THEY DO. AND I JUST GOT TO CHARACTERIZE THE ECONOMY IS OVERALL IN THAT SITUATION. FOR THE FACT THAT IT’S NOT UNIVERSAL. THERE ARE, OF COURSE, AS I MENTIONED, SIGNIFICANT REGIONAL AND SECTORAL DIFFERENCES ACROSS THE ECONOMY. BUT IN THAT CONTEXT, I THINK WE ARE IN A GLOBAL SETTING WHERE, IN FACT, YOU KNOW, MANY OF OUR BORROWING RATES HAVE GONE DOWN WITH GLOBAL INTEREST RATES THROUGH THE BOND MARKET AND SO WE ARE BENEFITTING FROM THAT IN TERMS OF, YOU KNOW, EASIER CONDITIONS FOR PEOPLE RENEWING THEIR MORTGAGES AND, IN FACT, NEGOTIATING NEW MORTGAGES. SO THAT’S ALREADY A FACTOR WHICH IS A CONSEQUENCE OF THAT TRADE WAR AND IS INFLUENCING THINGS. ALSO REMIND YOU THAT, YOU KNOW, I MEAN, THERE’S A LOT OF TALK ABOUT DIVERGENCE BUT ACTUALLY WHAT HAS OCCURRED IS MORE OF A CONVERGENCE THAT IS U.S. INTEREST RATES HAVE COME DOWN TO ABOUT THE SAME AS OUR LEVELS BECAUSE THEY WENT UP FARTHER IN THE FIRST PLACE. SO SAY, WE ARE KIND OF CONVERGED IN THE SITUATION RIGHT NOW AND OUR OUTLOOK FOR THE TWO ECONOMIES IS NOT THAT DIFFERENT.>>Question: SECONDLY, IS THE CURRENT RATE STILL PROVIDING STIMULUS TO THE CANADIAN ECONOMY GIVEN THIS LEVEL?>>ABSOLUTELY. THERE’S SUBSTANTIAL MONETARY STIMULUS IN THE SYSTEM AND THAT HAS BEEN A FACTOR FOR A LONG TIME. SO AS WE’VE SAID FOR LITERALLY YEARS, THERE ARE HEADWINDS PUSHING AGAINST THE CANADIAN ECONOMY AND UNTIL THOSE HEADWINDS DISSIPATE, YOU WON’T SEE A RETURN OF ALL POLICY PARAMETERS BACK TO WHAT WE CALL A NORMAL OR, YOU KNOW, NONSTIMULATIVE LEVELS. WE DID THINK WE WERE GETTING PRETTY CLOSE PREVIOUSLY BUT WE HAD THE TRADE WAR EXAMINE SOME MORE ISSUES WITH THE — WITH THE OIL MARKETS AND ANOTHER SHOCK FROM THAT SOURCE. IN THAT CONTEXT, WE’VE THROWN A LITTLE BIT AGAIN OFF TRACK, BUT AGAIN, THE FORCES THAT ARE PUSHING US BACK ARE STILL THERE, BUT AGAINST THEM ARE THESE FORCES COMING FROM OUTSIDE THE TRADE WAR.>>Question: CAR MIGHT BE AL, “FINANCIAL POST.” YOU’VE TALKED ABOUT GOOD POLICY MIX FOR YEARS NOW. IN THE GLOBAL CONTEXT, THINGS SEEM TO HAVE CAUGHT UP WHERE YOU’VE BEEN, A FEW YEARS AGO, AT LEAST, GIVEN THE CURRENT POLICY, IT WOULD BE HOPEFUL FOR YEARS GOING FORWARD? THE FISCAL STIMULUS AT THIS STAGE.>>BASED ON OUR MEETINGS IN WASHINGTON, IT’S ALMOST A GLOBAL STATEMENT YOU JUST MADE THAT THERE’S A GROWING CONCERN OF MONETARY POLICY HAS DONE MOST OF WHAT IT’S ABLE TO DO AND THAT THE SHOCK THAT WE’RE ALL FACING IS ONE THAT EVERYBODY IS SHARING. PERHAPS YOU WOULD LIKE TO TALK ABOUT THE FISCAL SIDE AND HOW IT WORKS IN.>>YOU KNOW VERY WELL AND I THINK WE’VE SAID FOR A LONG TIME, WE JUST TAKE FISCAL POLICY AS GIVEN, BUT IT’S A VERY IMPORTANT GIVEN AND, OF COURSE, WHETHER IT’S A PROVINCIAL BUDGET OR A FEDERAL BUDGET, THOSE ANNOUNCEMENTS CAN CHANGE THE BOTTOM LINE IN TERMS OF GROWTH. YOU’LL NOTICE THAT IN THE CURRENT OUTLOOK, THE CONTRIBUTION FROM GOVERNMENT GOES FROM ABOUT .7 IN 2018 DOWN TO .2 FOR 20 TO AND 2021, SO IT CAN REALLY MOVE THINGS AND THAT’S WHY WE WATCH IT SO CLOSELY. IT HAS IMPLICATIONS FOR THE OUTLOOK AND THEREFORE FOR MONETARY POLICY. I THINK WHEN WE, YOU KNOW, MAKE OUR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OUTLOOK WE ALSO LOOK AT WHAT ELSE HAS CHANGED OVER TIME. SO IT’S NEVER AN ALL ELSE BEING EQUAL SITUATION, AND SO WE’LL HAVE TO SEE WHAT COMES WITH THE NEW GOVERNMENT AND ALTER OUR OUTLOOK IN CONSEQUENCE.>>Question: MY SECOND QUESTION RELATES TO THE EXCHANGE RATE. HAVE YOU OBSERVED THAT THE STRENGTH OF THE CANADIAN DOLLAR IS HURTING THE COMPETITIVENESS OF CANADIAN EXPORTERS?>>WELL, IT’S REALLY — THE CANADIAN DOLLAR’S BEEN RELATIVELY STABLE IN ITS PRIMARY EXCHANGE, WHICH IS AGAINST THE U.S. DOLLAR. IT’S BEEN IN A PRETTY NARROW RANGE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IT WAS A YEAR OR SO AGO, BUT THE MAIN THING THAT’S HAPPENED IS THE U.S. DOLLAR’S BEEN STRONG GLOBALLY, AND SO WHILE WE’VE BEEN FAIRLY STEADY WITH THE U.S., WE’VE BEEN APPRECIATING AGAINST A LOT OF OTHER CURRENCIES. SO IT’S ON THOSE MARGINS WHERE PEOPLE ARE MENTIONING IT’S A LITTLE HARDER TO COMPETE. WE DO KNOW THAT AS IT SAYS HERE, WE EXPECT EXPORTS TO ACTUALLY GO DOWN DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THIS YEAR, WHICH IS SORT OF AN EXTRAORDINARILY STRONG Q 2 SO THE AVERAGE FOR THE YEAR STILL LOOKS, YOU KNOW — I WAS GOING TO SAY RESPECTABLE BUT I GUESS IT’S A LITTLE SOFT, AT LEAST POSITIVE. SO MY SENSE IS THAT IT CAN BUY UNCERTAIN MARGINS, BUT AS FAR AS THE COMPETITIVENESS ACROSS THE U.S., IS WHEN MOST OF THE CONVERSATIONS GO TO OTHER THINGS THAN THE EXCHANGE RATE. YOU KNOW, THE SORT OF IMPEDIMENTS OR, YOU KNOW, CREATE IMPEDIMENTS OR RED TAPE OR THOSE KINDS OF OTHER COST FACTORS.>>”GLOBE AND MAIL.”>>Question: DAVE PAR KINSON OF “THE GLOBE AND MAIL.” THE SUMMARY DRAFT OF THE PARAGRAPH STATEMENT THAT DROPS THE USE OF THE PHRASE THAT WE ARE CLOSE TO POTENTIAL. I’M JUST WONDERING — I KNOW WE DON’T LIKE TO HANG OURSELVES TOO MUCH ON THE PHRASE, BUT OBVIOUSLY THE MARKET PICKS UP ON CHANGES OF LANGUAGE. I’M WONDERING WHAT THE REASONING IS TO NO LONGER INCLUDE IN THE STATEMENT SUMMARY THAT WE BELIEVE THE ECONOMY TO BE CLOSE TO POTENTIAL AND WHAT’S THE REASONING FOR DROPPING DOWN?>>WELL, I THINK YOU JUST PROVED MY CONTENTION THAT IT’S BEST NOT TO SAY THE SAME THING EVERY TIME BECAUSE IT MEANS THAT PEOPLE DO GET HUNG UP ON TERMS AND WHETHER THAT ARE THERE OR NOT THERE EACH TIME. SO AS I THINK I’VE TOLD YOU MANY TIMES, WE START WITH A BLANK PAGE AND TELL A NEW STORY BASED ON THE NEW DATA AND WHAT WE OBSERVED AND WHAT OUR DELIBERATIONS WERE ABOUT. I DID MENTION IN MY OPENING STATEMENT THAT WE ARE CLOSE TO POTENTIAL. WE THINK IT’S SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 0 AND 1% OF EXCESS SUPPLY. POINT ESTIMATE IS CLOSE TO .5. WE SAY -.5 TO BE EXACT. WHICH IS, I WOULD SAY, IT’S NOT SOMETHING TO BE DISMISSED. IT’S CLEAR THAT WE HAVE MOVED IN THAT DIRECTION. THE QUESTION IS, DOES IT CONTINUE BEYOND THAT? THAT’S WHY WE SAY WE HAVE TO MONITOR THE SOURCES OF STRENGTH, THE SOURCES OF RESILIENCE OF THE ECONOMY AND MAKE SURE THAT THEY HOLD UP AND, OF COURSE, IT’S ALWAYS POSSIBLE THAT WE’LL GET SOME POSITIVE NEWS ON THE TRADE FRONT, WHICH WOULD BE — WHICH WOULD GIVE US SOME SORT OF A BALANCE IN THINGS LIKE INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS, SO, YOU KNOW, IF IT’S, I THINK, YOU CAN READ THE NEWSPAPER AS MUCH AS I DO, WHAT ODDS ARE THERE THAT KUZMA OR UCMA GETS RATIFIED IN THE NEAR TERM AND THAT THOSE ODDS ARE HIGHER TODAY THAN THEY WERE BEFORE AND THE PROSPECT OF A POSSIBLE DEAL, EVEN IF IT’S A PHASE ONE DEAL BETWEEN U.S. AND CHINA, I THINK, WOULD CAUSE, YOU KNOW, UNCERTAINTY TO STOP RISING, IF YOU LIKE. IT’S THE SORT OF THING, IT’S THE UNCERTAINTY PATH THAT’S CAUSING MOST OF THE PROBLEMS WITH INVESTMENT.>>Question: WHILE YOU’RE ON THE TOPIC OF THE POSSIBILITY OF A POSITIVE TURN ON THE TRADE FRONT, MPR HAS A BOX, IT TALKS ABOUT THE DOWN SIDE RISK. THERE SEEMS TO BE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE DOWN SIDE RISK HERE. YOU HAVE TALKED IN THE PAST ABOUT AT LEAST A DEGREE OF SYMMETRY OF THE RISK ON THE TRADE FRONT. DO YOU FEEL THAT WE ARE NOW TILTED MORE TOWARDS THE DOWN SIDE THAN YOU PREVIOUSLY FELT?>>YES. WE ARE. IF ONLY BECAUSE TIME HAS PASSED AND THE NEGATIVES ARE ALREADY THERE. SO WE ALREADY CAN POINT TO SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE BEING DONE AT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY FROM THE TRADE WAR. SO STARTING FROM THERE AS OPPOSED TO WHERE WE WERE, SAY, A YEAR AND A HALF AGO, WE WERE STARTING WITH, YOU KNOW, STATEMENTS, RHETORIC, BLUSTER. IT COULD HAVE BEEN BARGAINING. IT COULD BE REAL. WE DIDN’T KNOW. IT WAS DEFINITELY TWO SIDED THEN, AND THEN AS THE ACCUMULATED EVIDENCE GROWS, THEN YOU KNOW YOU’RE STARTING FROM A NEGATIVE POSITION. SO SURE, IF THE UNCERTAINTY GOES AWAY AND EVERYTHING KIND OF GOES BACK MORE TO NORMAL, THEN WE WOULD EXPECT TO SEE IT BALANCE BUT IT WILL BE SOME TIME BEFORE WE WERE TO MAKE UP THE LEVEL COST THAT’S ALREADY BEEN PAID. SO THERE IS AN ASYMMETRY TO IT FOR SURE. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JULY AND NOW, THE ANALYSIS IN THE BOXES, IS PRETTY IMPORTANT, BECAUSE IN THE BOX, IN JULY, WE WERE ANALYZING A HYPOTHETICAL AUGMENT OR ESCALATION OF THE TRADE WAR. MORE TARIFFS ON ALL SIDES AND WHEREAS WHAT THIS BOX DOES, IT HOLDS TARIFFS AND ALL THE ACTIONS THAT ARE PUT IN PLACE, HOLDS THEM CONSTANT. IT SIMPLY ANALYZES THE UNCERTAINTY CHANNEL, WHICH AS WE SAID OVER AND OVER, SEEMS TONIGHT ONE THAT’S PLAYING THE BIGGEST AND THE WAY THAT TAKES FORM IS BY COMPANIES FEELING UNCERTAIN ENOUGH THAT THEY REFUSE TO INVEST, SPEND MONEY, ON GROWING THEIR OPERATIONS AND SO WHAT WE DID WAS WE REVERSE ENGINEERED WHAT THE — ROUGHLY WHAT THE GAP IS BETWEEN THE FED DOT FLOP AND WHAT MARKET EXPECTATIONS ARE. AND CONVERT THAT HAD INTO HOW MUCH MORE UNCERTAINTY MUST BE PLAYING OUT IN THE MARKETPLACE. THAT’S HOW THE MEASURE WAS CREATED. SO WE SCALED THE SHOCK. THAT’S WHY WE CALL IT A MORE REALISTIC, IF YOU LIKE, IT’S NOT A PURELY HYPOTHETICAL ONE. IT’S ACTUALLY HOW MUCH UNCERTAINTY MARKET PARTICIPANTS SEEM TO HAVE IN THEIR MINDS. AND SO WE RUN THAT THROUGH THE MODELS AND WE’VE COME BACK WITH, AS YOU CAN SEE, A MORE DIRE SCENARIO THAN OUR BASE CASE. AND — BUT ONE WHERE WE CAN SEE ALL THE CHANNELS OPERATING, HOW THE ECONOMY WOULD ADJUST TO IT.>>”TORONTO STAR.”>>Question: YOU’RE PULLING TOGETHER A COUPLE OF THINGS YOU MENTIONND YOUR REPORT OF THE ALBERTA ENERGY INTENSIVE ECONOMY. I THINK YOU’RE INDICATING THAT THE ALBERTA BUDGET, YOU SEE PRECAUTIONARY. AT THE SAME TIME, YOU’VE GOT SOME INDICATIONS WHEN YOU SEE A SLOW RECOVERY IN THE ALBERTA ECONOMY. DOES THE AUSTERITY THAT YOU SEE IN THE BUDGET COME AT AN APPROPRIATE TIME IN THAT CYCLE IN TERMS OF, YOU KNOW, GETTING THAT ECONOMY SOME STIMULUS?>>WELL, WE DID ANALYZE THE EFFECT OF THE ALBERTA BUDGET FOR THE PURPOSES OF SEEING WHAT IT WOULD DO TO THE BOTTOM LINE FOR GROWTH IN CANADA AND I’M NOT GOING TO MAKE A COMMENT ABOUT THE TIMING OR THE APPROPRIATENESS OF ANY PARTICULAR MEASURES. WHAT WE DO SEE, THOUGH, IN ALBERTA IS STILL QUITE AN ADJUSTMENT IN THE OIL AND GAS SECTORS THAT THE GOVERNOR TALKED ABOUT THAT WE KNEW WAS GOING TO TAKE A WHILE AND OF COURSE BECAUSE OF THE TRANSPORTATION CONSTRAINTS IS A LITTLE BIT MORE PROTRACTED THAN WE HAD ORIGINALLY EXPECTED, SAY, IN 2015. THAT BEING SAID, ON THE INVESTMENT SIDE, WE THINK THAT AFTER THE REST OF THE ADJUSTMENTS FINISH THIS YEAR, THAT NEXT YEAR, BECAUSE OF NEW CAPACITY COMING OUT OF MINES FROM ENBRIDGE THREE AND SOME OTHER PROJECTS, AS WELL AS FINDING A NEW LEVEL, THAT THAT ESTIMATE SHOULD STABILIZE AND AT A NEWER LEVEL AND IT’S IMPORTANT TO JUST UNDERSTAND HOW MUCH ADJUSTMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN MADE. IT USED TO BE 30% OF GDP INVESTMENT. NOW IT’S 15%. SO IT’S QUITE A LOT LOWER BUT STILL AN IMPORTANT PART OF INVESTMENT IN CANADA. YOU KNOW, ON THE EXPORT SIDE AGAIN, WE EXPECT FROM THE ENERGY POINT OF VIEW THAT GROWTH TO CONTINUE, BUT AT A MODEST PACE. WHEN YOU LOOK AT OTHER PARTS OF THE ALBERTAN ECONOMY, YOU DO SEE THE HOUSING MARKET STILL ADJUSTING. YOU SEE ON THE LABOUR SIDE THAT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SO RELATIVELY HIGH AND — BUT AT THE SAME TIME, THERE’S ALSO SIGNS OF STABILIZING. IT’S A PRETTY DIFFICULT ADJUSTMENT, BUT WE’RE HAPPY TO SEE THAT AT LEAST ON THE WAGE SIDE, THAT WAGE GROWTH PICKED UP OVERALL IN CANADA AND WAGE GROWTH IN THOSE PARTICULAR REGIONS HAS ALSO PICKED UP TO KIND OF MEET THE CANADIAN AVERAGE.>>Question: JUST ON THE TIMING MORE GENERALLY, TO GO BACK TO YOUR COMMENTS ABOUT THE POLICY MIX, SO IF THERE’S A NEED FOR STIMULUS AND MONETARY POLICY IS OUT OF JUICE, WHEN IS THE BEST TIME FOR REVVING UP THE FISCAL POLICY SIDE OF THINGS?>>I THINK FROM — THAT’S AN IMPORTANT QUESTION, AND I THINK IT’S MORE INTERESTING THAN JUST WHEN MONETARY POLICY. BECAUSE THE MIX OF MONETARY AND FISCAL POLICY ACTUALLY MATTERS ALL THE TIME BECAUSE WHEN YOU STIMULATE THE ECONOMY AND YOU DO IT FROM THE MONETARY POLICY SIDE, WHAT YOU’RE DOING IS YOU’RE STIMULATING CREDIT GROWTH. AND OFTEN HOUSEHOLD CREDIT GROWTH. WHEREAS WHEN YOU’RE USING THE GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, IT’S ON THE GOVERNMENT SIDE AND SO THERE’S A CHOICE THERE TO BE MADE ABOUT WHICH PILE OF DEBT YOU WANT TO INCREASE. NOT DEPENDENT ON WHERE YOU ARE IN THE ECONOMY. I THINK AS WELL, THERE’S — IT’S PRETTY WIDELY ACCEPTED, AT LEAST IN THE GLOBAL TABLE THAT WE’VE BEEN AT, THAT THE FISCAL POLICY HAS MORE BANG FOR ITS BUCK WHEN INTEREST RATES ARE LOW AND IN PARTICULARLY, WHEN INTEREST RATES HAVE RUN OUT OF DEUCES, AS YOU PUT IT. SO THOSE ARE ALL CONSIDERATIONS AND THEY’RE ONES THAT I THINK FISCAL AUTHORITY NEEDS TO TAKE ON THEIR OWN BECAUSE THEY’RE MORE OBJECTIVES TO FISCAL POLICY THAN MEETING THE JOINT INFLATION TARGET AGREEMENT THAT WE HAVE.>>Question: WUL STREET JOURNAL. THE STATEMENT ABOUT THE IMPORTANCE OF GOVERNING TO SOURCES OF RESILIENCE, I’M WONDERING, GIVEN THE FOCUS THEY PUT ON THE ROTATION OF THE ECONOMY, THE HOUSING AND EXPORTS AND INVESTMENT, WHERE YOUR VIEW OF THAT ROTATION CURRENTLY FITS IN. IS IT ON HOLD RIGHT NOW GIVEN THE GLOBAL [ Inaudible ].>>SO YES, IT’S ON HOLD. THE GOOD NEWS IS A BUNCH OF ROTATION ACTUALLY OCCURRED BACK GOING WHEN YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT. IT’S NOT AS THOUGH IT NEVER OCCURRED. IT DID. SO IF YOU JUST LOOK AT THE CHARTS AND IN LEVELS, YOU KNOW, OF HOW EXPORTS CAME BACK THROUGH THAT PERIOD IN INVESTMENT TOO, BUT WE’VE HAD, YOU KNOW, A SERIES OF INTERRUPTIONS OF THAT PROCESS, YOU KNOW, ON THE REALLY BIG ONE BEING THE OIL SHOCK IN 2014/15. YOU KNOW, ALMOST TO TELL THE STORY NOW, YOU HAVE TO TAKE ENERGY SECTOR INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS OUT OF THE CHART AND SEE WHAT’S GOING ON IN THE REST OF THE ECONOMY BECAUSE THAT IS JUST SUCH A MAJOR ADJUSTMENT. IT OVERSHADOWS MOST EVERYTHING ELSE. BUT IF WE DO THAT, SO YOU SEE PLENTY OF SIGNS THAT THE ROTATION HAS ACTUALLY OCCURRED AND THAT IT CONTINUES, BUT IT’S FAIR TO SUMMARIZE IT RIGHT NOW AS BIT ON HOLD BECAUSE BOTH INVESTMENT AND EXPORTS HAVE SLOWED RIGHT DOWN IN LIGHT OF THE TRADE WAR. WE ARE DEFINITELY — WE’RE IN A TWO-TRACK ECONOMY, WHICH WE’VE TALKED ABOUT CERTAIN PHASES AND ALMOST ALWAYS IT HAS SOME FEATURES OF THE TWO-TRACK ECONOMY, BUT JUST A COUPLE OF QUICK NUMBERS, LIKE, OVERALL RIGHT NOW, WE THINK THE ECONOMY’S GROWING AT 1 1/2%. WELL, THE SERVICE SIDE OF THE ECONOMY IS GROWING BY 2.3 OR 2.4% WHEREAS THE GOODS SIDE OF THE ECONOMY IS GROWING, LIKE — IS GROWING NEGATIVELY. THAT, OF COURSE, WOULD INCLUDE THE ENERGY SECTOR AS AN IMPORTANT PART OF THAT BUT MANUFACTURING, ET CETERA. SO IN TERMS OF EMPLOYMENT, IT LOOKS MORE BALANCED BECAUSE WE CONTINUE TO HAVE JOB CREATION ACROSS A MUCH WIDER SPECTRUM AND, YOU KNOW, SO OVER 2% GROWTH EMPLOYMENT OVER THE LAST YEAR, WHICH IS TERRIFIC. AND 2.6% IN SERVICES, 1.3% IN GOODS. AGAIN, YOU CAN SEE THE TWO TRACKS OPERATING. AND THERE’S A FAIRLY STRONG REGIONAL DIMENSION TO THAT. AS CAROLINE’S BEEN MENTIONING. SO WE’RE AWARE OF ALL THOSE DISPARITIES. IT’S JUST THAT IN THE AGGREGATE, IT COMES TOGETHER ROUGHLY AT POTENTIAL JUST A LITTLE BIT SHORT OF POTENTIAL AND AS I SAID, WITH INFLATION ON TARGET.>>Question: YOU MENTIONED FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY. THE IMPACT ON MORE VULNERABILITIES. CAN YOU SPEAK TO WHAT EXTENT CONCERNS ABOUT FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY IS FACTORED INTO THE ACTUAL DECISION MAKING?>>WELL, AS I SAID THIS MY OPENING REMARKS, WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, IN FACT, A RECORD OF THINGS THAT WE SPENT OUR TIME ON IN DELIBERATING, IT WAS A SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF THE DISCUSSION. WE DO FEEL THAT FIRST OF ALL, THE NEW STRESS TEST AND OTHER CREDENTIAL CHANGES HAVE SERVED PRETTY WELL TO KIND OF GET A SITUATION INTO A MORE NORMAL SORT OF BEHAVIOUR. WE WERE WATCHING, AS YOU KNOW, FOR A WHILE, TO SEE HOW DISRUPTIVE THAT MAY BE FOR THE HOUSING MARKET SO THE HOUSING MARKET, YOU KNOW, HAD A WEAK YEAR OR SO BUT IT’S COMING BACK ACROSS THE BOARD AND SO THAT’S ALL ENCOURAGING. NOW IT’S IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER, THOUGH, THAT THOSE IMPACT CREDENTIAL MANAGERS ARE A FORM OF PROTECTION AGAINST FUTURE EXCESSIVE ENTHUSIASM. SO THAT OF COURSE — THAT’S A LITTLE BIT UNTESTED. IT’S KIND OF A FIRST TIME WE’VE GONE INTO A HOUSING RECOVERY WITH THOSE NEW MEASURES IN PLACE SO WE’LL HAVE — THAT’S WHY WE SAY, WE’LL MONITOR THAT CLOSELY. BUT NO DOUBT, IN TODAY’S CREDENTIAL ENVIRONMENT, THE COSTS ASSOCIATED WITH A SO-CALLED INSURANCE RATE CUT WOULD BE LOWER THAN IT WOULD HAVE BEEN WITHOUT THOSE MACRO CREDENTIALS. SO THAT’S THE BASE YOU START FROM. BUT WE DON’T THINK IT’S ZERO OR ANYTHING. IT’S STILL POSSIBLE, OF COURSE, TO REIGNITE A BUNCH OF BIDDING WARS AND SO ON IN THE HOUSING MARKET. BECAUSE AS FAR AS I KNOW, NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED ON THE SUPPLY SIDE. YOU KNOW, BUT BY HAVING LOWER RATES AND GOOD INCOME GROWTH, THERE’S GOOD DEMAND AND IMMIGRATION. THERE’S GOOD DEMAND FOR HOUSING. SO IT WAS AN IMPORTANT PART OF THE DISCUSSION AND IN THE END, WE WERE COMFORTABLE WHERE WE FOUND THAT OVERALL RISK BALANCE. IT’S JUST NOT MANAGING INFLATION RISK BUT FINANCIAL STABILITY RISKS AT THE SAME TIME.>>ANY OTHER QUESTIONS? YES?>>Question: CAN YOU GIVE US A SENSE OF HOW CLOSE [ Inaudible ].>>I DON’T KNOW HOW TO ANSWER THAT, ANDY. YOU CAN TELL FROM THE PREVIOUS EXCHANGE, WE DEFINITELY TALKED ABOUT WHAT THAT WOULD LOOK LIKE. AND IT’S TRUE THAT AS ON INFLATION TARGETER, YOU’RE LOOKING FORWARD, YOU’RE BALANCING THE RISKS ON THE INFLATION OUTLOOK, AND IF THE DOWN SIDE RISKS START TO BUILD UP, THAT’S WHEN YOU START THINKING THAT, YOU KNOW, GOSH, WE SHOULD ANTICIPATE THAT. SO SO FAR, AS I SAID, WE KIND OF HAVE — WE CAN CLEARLY IDENTIFY IN THE EXPORTS AND INVESTMENT THIS DRAG COMING FROM THE TRADE SIDE. BUT AT THE SAME TIME, WE’VE GOT SOME LIFTS COMING OUT OF OTHER PARTS OF THE ECONOMY SO THAT’S HOW THOSE TWO THINGS KIND OF TEND TO BALANCE OUT FOR THE TIME BEING UNTIL YOU SEE DIFFERENT DATA, THAT CONVINCE YOU OTHERWISE. ON TOP OF THAT, AS I WANT TO GO AND MAKE EVERYBODY UNDERSTAND, WE START THAT DISCUSSION WITH INFLATION ON TARGET. IF INFLATION WERE BELOW TARGET, SUCH AS WHERE WE WERE BACK IN 2014/15, THEN ESPECIALLY THEN WHEN WE HAD THE DOWN SIDE SHOCK FROM THE OIL PRICE COLLAPSE, WE COULD DO AN ARITHMETIC AROUND THAT. A FEW COMPANIES WE KNEW HOW LARGE THAT SHOCK WOULD BE. TO THE ECONOMY. IN DOLLARS. AND HOW QUICKLY IT WOULD AFFECT. WHEREAS HERE, WE’RE TALKING ABOUT A SIDE VERY INTANGIBLE. HOW DO COMPANIES ADAPT TO THIS TRADE FRUSTRATION OR TRADE UNCERTAINTY? THEY DON’T USUALLY JUST SIT THERE. THEY DO THINGS. AND SO YOU HAVE TO KIND OF READ THE DATA AND SEE HOW IT’S GOING AS OPPOSED TO DOING JUST ARITHMETIC. THAT MUCH UNCERTAINTY, I THINK THE BEST SOLUTION HERE, WHERE WE ARE, IS TO HOLD FIRM AND WATCH THINGS DEVELOP AND AS I SAID, BECAUSE INFLATION’S ON TARGET. IT KIND OF GIVES YOU THAT ABILITY TO KEEP IT SYMMETRIC.>>Question: THE FACT THAT THE FEDERAL ELECTION WAS ONLY A FEW DAYS BEFORE THIS SCHEDULED ANNOUNCEMENT, DID THAT PLAY A FACTOR AT ALL?>>WELL, TRADITIONALLY, THE CENTRAL BANK IS USUALLY QUIET DURING ELECTION PERIOD. I THINK THAT’S ONLY MAKES SENSE. IT AVOIDS US GETTING DRAGGED INTO THE DIALOGUE. I THINK THAT’S AN IMPORTANT THING. BUT, NO, IT’S OBVIOUSLY A WARRANTED IT, WE WOULD HAVE ACTED TODAY. THAT WOULD HAVE BEEN OUR PREFERENCE TO DO. SO NOTHING LIKE THAT.>>Question: DID THEY CONSIDER CUTS IN SEPTEMBER?>>WELL, IN SEPTEMBER, WE DIDN’T HAVE A WHOLE NEW FORECAST. WE HAD — WE WERE, OF COURSE, IF YOU ASKED ME IN SEPTEMBER, I WOULD HAVE — WE COULD HAVE GUESSED WHICH WAY THE FORECAST WAS SHIFTING. RIGHT? SO — BUT, YOU KNOW, IT’S ONE THING TO KNOW TO — UNLESS A RISK BECOMES OBVIOUS TO YOU, IN THAT SHORT TIME FRAME OF SIX WEEKS, YOU’RE MORE INCLINED TO SAY I NEED TO UNDERSTAND THIS BETTER BEFORE I KNOW WHEN — BECAUSE AS CAROLINE MENTIONED EARLIER, IT’S NEVER JUST ONE THING THAT’S CHANGING. IT’S ALL KINDS OF THINGS CHANGING ALL AT ONCE. SO YOU WANT TO FIGURE OUT THE EXACT PROPORTION AND WHAT — HOW THE RISKS HAVE TILTED, REALLY DOES REQUIRE US USING ALL OF OUR TOOLS. THAT’S A LONGER PROCESS. IT’S WHY WE ONLY DO IT EVERY FOUR TIMES A YEAR. EVERY THREE MONTHS. SO IT’S A BIG EXERCISE AND I WOULD BE — WELL, FIRST OF ALL, IT WOULD BE HARD TO DO EVERY TIME, BUT I THINK IT WOULD BE COUNTERPRODUCTIVE BECAUSE YOU ACTUALLY NEED TIME TO ABSORB NEW DATA AND THINK OF THE JUDGMENT MUCH IT’S NOT MECHANICAL EXERCISE LIKE PRESSING A BUTTON. SO THE DIRECT ANSWER TO YOUR QUESTION IS, NO. BUT CERTAINLY WE COULD ALL SEE WHICH WAY THE WINDS WERE BLOWING AND THAT THE RISKS WERE BEGINNING TO ACCUMULATE ON THE FOREIGN SIDE.>>Question: [ Inaudible ].>>YOU GOT A NEW FORECAST IN FRONT OF YOU AND YOU CAN SEE THEN AND THEN PLUS THAT EXTRA CASE THAT’S IN BOX THREE KIND OF INFORMS, WELL, OKAY, SO WHAT WOULD THE WORLD LOOK LIKE IF, SAY, SAY THE FORECAST IS WRONG AND IT’S A BIT WORSE THAN WE THOUGHT? WELL, IT’S EASY ENOUGH TO IMAGINE WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE IF IT’S BETTER, YOU KNOW. BUT IF IT’S — IF IT WERE WORSE, THAT BOX HELPS INFORM THAT. THEN JUST NOTE THAT ACTUALLY IN THAT SCENARIO, INFLATION STAYS WITHIN THE BANDS, ON THAT SCENARIO. OKAY? PARTLY IT’S FOR AN UNFORTUNATE REASON, WHICH IS THE AGRISUPPLY GOES DOWN. AS WELL AS AGGREGATE DEMAND. IF IT WAS JUST DEMAND GOING DOWN, THERE WOULD BE MORE PRESSURE ON INFLATION. BUT THERE’S LESS PRESSURE ON INFLATION BECAUSE OF THAT STAGFLATIONRY DEBT. THE SUPPLY CONTRACTS. PERMANENTLY. AS WELL. SO ANYWAY, THAT’S EXACTLY — THAT’S THE ONLY COMPLICATED THING TO DO, JUST ON THE BACK OF AN ENVELOPE. THAT’S WHY WE NEED TO HAVE THE TOOLS ALL TO BE DEPLOYED AND THEN THE WHOLE STAFF RALLIES AROUND IT.>>ANYBODY ELSE?>>Question: I FEEL LIKE I SHOULD ASK A QUESTION ABOUT LIBRA AND GETTING THROUGH ALL THE QUESTIONS ON THE BANK ON THE CANADIAN ECONOMY. DO YOU WANT TO SORT OF UPDATE THE BANK OF CANADA’S VIEW ON LIBRA AND WHAT APPEARS TO BE A NEW URGENCY AMONG GLOBAL REGULATORS ABOUT GETTING A HANDLE ON A STABLE POINT.>>WELL, SURE. TO REMIND YOU THAT WE’RE A COUPLE OF YEARS OUT AHEAD OF THAT. SO I’M HAPPY TO BE SITTING BESIDE BUT NOT OF THE WORLD’S FOREMOST EXPERTS. SO OVER TO YOU.>>SO IT’S INTERESTING HOW EXCITING THESE DEVELOPMENTS CAN BE, AND YOU’RE TALKING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT LIBRA, BUT THERE’S A WHOLE CLASS OF CRYPTO ASSETS CALLED STABLE COINS AND THAT’S PART OF THAT ASSET CLASS, AND WHAT’S EXCITING ABOUT IT IS THE FACT THAT THESE KINDS OF INNOVATIONS CAN ADDRESS WHAT I THINK ARE IMPORTANT ISSUES IN GLOBAL PAYMENT SYSTEMS. PARTICULARLY THE COST OF CROSS-BORDER PAYMENTS, IF YOU’RE TRYING TO DO A REMITTANCE, YOU’RE HERE AND YOU WANT TO SEND MONEY TO THE PHILIPPINES, WELL, IT COSTS A LOT OF MONEY. IF YOU’RE IN ANOTHER COUNTRY, NOT SO MUCH CANADA, BUT IN OTHERS WHERE YOU DON’T HAVE ACCESS TO A BANKING ACCOUNT, YOU CAN’T EVEN MAKE THOSE PAYMENTS. SO THIS IDEA OF BEING MORE EFFICIENT AND GETTING ACCESS IS QUITE ATTRACTIVE. AT THE SAME TIME, WE KNOW THAT INNOVATIONS NEVER COME WITHOUT RISK AND SO WHEN YOU BALANCE THAT RISK/REWARD, YOU HAVE TO TAKE SOME OF THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE TYPES OF INNOVATIONS, INCLUDING LIBRA, PRETTY SERIOUSLY, AND THAT’S WHAT THE G-7 DID. YOU INVITED NOTICES. THERE WAS A REPORT THAT CAME OUT THAT CANADA CONTRIBUTED TO UNDER THE FRENCH PRESIDENCY, WHICH HIGHLIGHTS THE BENEFITS BUT ALSO THE COST THAT WE ALL KNOW ARE REGULATE TO MONEY LAUNDERING AND TERRORIST FINANCES BUT ALSO WITH RESPECT TO SAFEGUARDING THE VALUE OF THAT STABLE COIN, PROPERLY AS WELL AS POTENTIALLY GETTING IN THE WAY OF MONETARY SOVEREIGNTY FROM COUNTRIES AND SO IT’S FOR THAT REASON THAT THAT REPORT CONCLUDED THAT ANY KIND OF INNOVATION OF THAT TYPE WOULD HAVE TO — PARTICULARLY LIBRA — WOULD HAVE TO MEET THE REGULATORY REQUIREMENTS BEFORE IT CAN GO LIVE. AND I THINK THAT MAKES SENSE IN TERMS OF SAFE GUARDING, I GUESS, A SYSTEM NOT FOR CENTRAL BANKS BUT FOR CITIZENS. I’M FOR OUR COUNTRY. AT THE SAME TIME, I THINK IT HAS PUT A SPOTLIGHT ON, HOW DID WE GET HERE WITH INEFFICIENT PAYMENT SYSTEMS AND ONES WHERE HE DON’T HAVE ACCESS? AND THAT PUT THE ONUS ON CENTRAL BANKS AND MAJOR PARTICIPANTS AND THE INTERNATIONAL NETWORK TO DO SOMETHING QUITE QUICKLY, AS QUICKLY AS THEY CAN, TO ADDRESS THOSE ISSUES. I THINK THAT WORK IS GOING TO BE WELL UNDERWAY. IT’S A PRIORITY FOR THE G-7. I BELIEVE IT WILL LIKELY BE FOR THE G20 AND RELATED GROUPS AT THE BIS AND THE FINANCIAL STABILITY BOARD AND CANADA WILL BE RIGHT THERE PARTICIPATING WITH IT.>>THANK YOU. THANK YOU.

6 Comments

  • Wayne Kuzek

    October 30, 2019

    That's funny before the election everything was going to be up that shows you the first step to bring down the country he is level headed the lies come out evenly on both sides of his mouth

    Reply
  • ExpatriateNL

    October 30, 2019

    Before I even watch let me prognosticate. Turdeau gerrymandered with the loonie to get reelected.

    Reply
  • Monish Kumar

    October 30, 2019

    Astounding Work, I totally liked it!, See this New Album 'Monish Jasbird – Death Blow', channel link www.youtube.com/channel/UCv_x5rlxirO-WKjLIyk6okQ?sub_confirmation=1 , if you like to πŸ™‚

    Reply
  • Anthony Quantrill

    October 30, 2019

    The Privy Council aka Ian Shugart, control the Bank of Canada. Nothing but corruption that scene is. Take back your country Canada.

    Reply
  • Gerard Vinet

    October 30, 2019

    45 minutes to mention that POTUS Donald Trump will eat 3/4 of Canada's humble pie !!!!!!!!

    Reply
  • Alexander Wesner

    October 30, 2019

    How about we stop giving 100's of millions to crap hole nations and cut ties with China as they have shown by not obeying our western laws that govern pollution levels and chemicals that have been banned for over 30 years in the west are used in dangerous levels that deplete our ozone…Gretta Thunburg can suck a fart out of my but …Go to India and China to little retarded marxist tool…in the next 10 years you are gonna see a shift of power to China as the west is ripped apart by those who have wrote about it for over 50 years lol the CFR rothchilds and Soros and we are so stupid…lol stay safe…

    Reply

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