26.09.2019: Oil and RUB waiting for momentum (Brent, USD/RUB)

26.09.2019: Oil and RUB waiting for momentum (Brent, USD/RUB)


Oil prices are holding steady after yesterday’s decline. The latest hopes, given by Washington, about the possible US-China trade dispute resolution set the positive market sentiment, eliminating previous concerns. The ruble displays a moderate dynamics today, trading in a positive territory. Traders have factored in the impeachment inquiry against Donald Trump, and now they have focused on his comments. According to the US president, the trade deal with China is very likely to happen sooner than expected. These words raised the spirits of market participants. However, enthusiasm may not last long, since Donald Trump is known for using this trick in order to divert attention from existing
political and financial instability. It seems that he is doing the same thing now. On Wednesday, Brent oil quotes closed the session at $62.57 per barrel. Today, the price is still trading near this level. The news about a rapid restoration of Saudi oil plants and increased volatility in the financial markets continues to weigh down on the prices despite general positive background. The ruble did not show any reaction to the results of the federal loan bonds auction. The Russian currency mainly depends on oil, thus repeating its trajectory. Yesterday, the dollar/ruble pair managed to regain ground after having some losses during the day. However, early this morning, the ruble has marginally eased against major counterparts. The pair is very likely to trade in the narrow range near the level of 64. The slightest negative change in the current situation may push the pair to 65 rubles per dollar. The deadline for tax payment in Russia was on Wednesday, but this does not necessarily mean the immediate weakening of the ruble. Russian currency has all the chances to gain ground due to the difference in interest rates and further possible easing of Russian central
bank policy.

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