25.10.2019: Will oil continue its rally next week? (Brent, USD/RUB)

25.10.2019: Will oil continue its rally next week? (Brent, USD/RUB)


Brent crude oil is trading above 61 dollars per barrel boosting the buyers’ sentiment. At the moment, its weekly gains have exceeded 3%. The ruble remains under pressure as the market participants expect the Central Bank of Russia to cut rates even lower. On Thursday, Mario Draghi held his final monetary policy meeting as the president of the European Central Bank. This caused the European currency to drop. Next week, the Federal Reserve is planning to take a break from cutting interest rates after lowering them again next week. Meanwhile, the decision of the Russian Central Bank on interest rates keeps markets in suspense. Investors have priced in a rate cut of 0.5%, although there are speculations that the monetarypolicy may be eased by a quarter percentage point. Moreover, analysts at Sberbank anticipate a further rate cut in December. However, their forecast is not supported by anything, leaving an impression that the market is fueled with false expectations in order to increase the volatility. The ruble is extending losses and is trading mixed against the US dollar early in the day. The dollar/ruble pair was last seen trading near the level of 64 where it closed the session yesterday. The Russian currency is unlikely to change its trajectory during the day if the rate is reduced by 0.5%. So, the traders keep an eye on the comments from the Central Bank. The dollar/ruble pair is expected to gain momentum on any signs indicating a possible tightening of monetary policy. In case the rate cut is announced at the meeting in December, the ruble may again weaken. However, the traders’ reaction to the Central Bank decision is sometimes difficult to predict. The oil market sees more optimis today with the Brent crude oil holding steady at the early high of 61 dollars 47 cents a barrel. If the trend continues, a new level of 62 is highly possible. Traders’ sentiment boosted amid the news from the US, indicating the rise in crude inventories last week. Moreover, OPEC and allies have pledged to take additional measures to support the oil prices. Worries about persisting economic slowdown still limit the oil’s uptick and can cause a possible decline. Next week, traders will continue to monitor trade negotiations between the US and Chinese. The US dollar dynamics will definitely stay in focus as well. If the Fed decides to further reduce the rate, the dollar will lose ground. This, in turn, will support the growth of commodity assets and oil is no exception.

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