24.10.2019: RUB traders await Bank of Russia meeting (Brent, USD/RUB)

24.10.2019: RUB traders await Bank of Russia meeting (Brent, USD/RUB)


Despite a slight correctional decline, the oil is still holding above the level of 60 dollars per barrel. The ruble was unaffected by the oil’s rally and is trading mixed today. The middle of the trade week turned out to be successful for the oil buyers as the Brent quotes have soared by 2.53%. The news about an additional reduction in oil supplies, that is to be discussed by the OPEC countries in December, has contributed to oil’s sharp upstick. Another positive signal came from the US where an unexpected decline in crude inventories was registered this week. However, traders’ reaction was quite sluggish as the prices had already surged by the time of the data release. Some market participants decided to take profit after the EIA report was published. Today, global oil prices are moving away from the early highs. Brent crude oil is trading at 60 dollars 90 cents a barrel. The quotes are expected to stay in the range of 60-61 dollars per barrel during the day. Ongoing trade talks between the US and China as well as concerns about global economic growth still weigh on oil prices. The leaders of the two countries are planning to have a meeting in November. The outcomes of the meeting can be a turning point for the oil market as it will cast light on the trade deal prospects. The Russian currency didn’t follow the oil’s rally. The ruble’s growth could have been hindered by the low rating of Russian banking system from Moody’s agency. The news was negatively received by the market. However, today the ruble is gaining ground against the US dollar with the dollar/ruble pair trading at 63.81. In general, the ruble buyers seem to be tired of the oil rally and are cautiously taking profits. The progress in trade negotiations and news around Brexit are no longer in focus of the traders. The market’s attention has shifted to the disappointing profit results coming from a few big-name foreign companies. Investors also anticipate that the Bank of Russia will cut the interest rate. Recently, the Central bank of Russia has showed intention to further ease the monetary policy. Market participants are considering a possibility of interest rate reduction immediately by 0.5 percentage points on Friday. Meanwhile, cautious actions of the Bank of Russia can support the ruble at the end of the week, leaving it near the level of 64.

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