07.10.2019: GBP ready to hit new low (USD, EUR, GBP, CHF)


Today, during the European session, the US dollar is likely to be affected by the news on the US-China trade talks and economic data from Europe. The greenback may slightly strengthen across the board thanks to an increase in the yield of US Treasuries. Today, the euro is being held back by weak domestic statistics. According to the Federal Statistics Office of Germany, the country’s factory orders fell by 0.6% month-on-month in August, while analysts expected a decrease of only 0.4%. On a yearly basis, the indicator reduced by 6.7%, after declining by 5% in July. The Eurozone Investor Confidence Index slipped to a 6.5-year low. Nevertheless, even on the back of such statistics, the euro-dollar pair remains in a sideways trend, trading in the previous range near the level of 1.0980. Traders are in no hurry to sell off the euro. They are waiting for some clues from the Fed about its key rate cut. That’s why all the attention is focused on Jerome Powell’s speech which is expected to be given today and tomorrow and after tomorrow. Plus, the FOMC Meeting Minutes set to be published on Wednesday may also give insight into the future of the interest rate. This week, the GBP/USD pair has started trading with a small bearish gap, but then closed it almost immediately. The pair failed to develop its upward movement above 1.2335, an important area for a reversal. The pound is still facing pressure and continues to hit new lows below the level of 1.2300. The shrinking prospects for Brexit observed last weekend have become the main adverse factor for the pound sterling. The European Parliament rejected new Boris Johnson’s proposals, and Chief Brexit negotiator from Brussels Michel Barnier said that the British government would have to bear full responsibility for a “no-deal” withdrawal. Amid a slight deterioration in investor sentiment, the USD/CHF pair was unable to preserve its momentum and dipped to the lower border of the daily trading range below 0.9950. The pair continued to retreat from its multi-month highs that had been hit last week. Overall, it remains under pressure for the second session in a row. In general, the pair still remains within the trading range established last week. Therefore, it is not clear yet whether the pair has managed to create a short-term peak and whether traders will continue to open short deals. Now there has been an increased demand for safe-haven assets in the market which also indicates a slight decrease in stock markets. This Wednesday, traders are awaiting the release of the FOMC September meeting minutes. The meeting was held on September 17-18. As a result, the regulator reduced its key rate by 25 basis points to 1.75-2%. Another Fed’s rate cut is expected this month.

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